![]() The personnel and equipment arrived in Deir ez Zor Province in July 2023 following rumors of a US-led International Coalition attack into regime-held territory, according to local Syrian opposition media. The more recent deployment demonstrates the priority Iran has given to securing the Syrian regime relative to its campaign to expel the United States from Syria. Iran has a long history of using violence to impose social control. CTP previously reported that Iran sent Afghan, Iranian, and Iraqi snipers to Damascus from Iraq on August 27 and 31, possibly to quash potential protests. Suwayda Province in southern Syria has become the well-organized center of the anti-regime protest movement as organizers demonstrate greater ability to direct and sustain constant demonstrations and issue new demands. Iranian-backed militias relocated personnel and military equipment to southern Syria from Deir ez Zor on September 4, possibly to secure the Syrian regime as anti-regime protests continue. CTP previously reported that Iran and the Syrian regime are using the current security situation to create an increasingly hostile operating environment for US forces in eastern Syria. ![]() Cultivating an anti-US grassroots resistance movement is one component of the coordinated campaign to expel the United States from Syria that CTP and ISW have been tracking since June 2023. ![]() Iran, Russia, and Syria tried to provoke animosity within the local population against the United States in July and August 2023 to motivate them to attack US and SDF forces. The attendees directed Arab tribal leaders at the meeting to attack the US-led International Coalition for its sponsorship of the SDF. Deputy Commander of Russian Forces in Syria General Igor Smoly met with a local pro-regime sheikh and an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force-affiliated sheikh in Hatla near Deir ez Zor City on September 2. Arab tribes in Deir ez Zor Province have been clashing with the US-backed SDF since August 17 in response to long-running local grievances against the SDF. Russia directed local tribes to attack the US-led International Coalition and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria likely part of a coordinated effort with Iran and the Syrian regime to expel the United States from Syria. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout the Levant especially in Syria. Senior Iranian officials outlined the regime’s policy perspective on Iran-Turkey bilateral relations during their meetings with Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan in Tehran on September 3.The regime is taking steps to preempt protests that commemorate the death of Mahsa Amini and will likely crack down on demonstrations that occur. Iranian protest organizations are planning demonstrations to commemorate the regime’s killing of Mahsa Amini on September 16 and may generate protest turnout across Iran.Iranian-backed militias relocated personnel and military equipment to southern Syria from Deir ez Zor on September 4, possibly to secure the Syrian regime as anti-regime protests continue.Russia directed local tribes to attack the US-led International Coalition and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria likely part of a coordinated effort with Iran and the Syrian regime to expel the United States from Syria.It also shows developments in Syria that jeopardize regional stability and pose threats to US forces and interests, including Iranian and Iranian-backed militia positions. The map depicts events in Iran that affect the stability of the Iranian regime, namely anti-regime protests and reported poisoning incidents. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) with support from the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute launched an interactive map of Iran and the Middle East. To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates Monday through Friday. ![]() It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. Ashka Jhaveri, Amin Soltani, Annika Ganzeveld, and Andie Parry
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